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By 2050, China’s economy will be almost twice the size of the U.S. If these risks are contained, the next forty years are likely to see extraordinary changes. These factors include access to technology, the opening up of markets, stabilized macroeconomic conditions, higher savings and investment rates, and effective government interventions to support private-sector development.Ī realistic assessment suggests that this combination may persist in coming decades, but only if the global community mitigates a number of significant risks-climate change, geopolitical breakdown, financial crisis, and protectionism chief among them. In recent years, however, an extraordinary confluence of factors has allowed an unprecedented number of countries-and people-to achieve rapid income growth. Two centuries of history show that there is nothing automatic about economic development and catch-up. In this book, Uri Dadush and William Shaw provide the first systematic examination of the long-term implications of this tectonic shift for the international economy and global governance, covering both domestic and international economic policies. The rapid rise of what we used to call the developing world is a defining trend of our time. THE MODEL UNDERPINNING THE LONG-TERM PROJECTIONSĬARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE FOREWORD International finance-History-21st century. International trade-History-21st century. Developing countries-Economic conditions-21st century. Includes bibliographical references and index. Juggernaut : how emerging markets are reshaping globalization / Uri Dadush and William Shaw. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data To order, contact Carnegie’s distributor:

The Carnegie Endowment does not take institutional positions on public policy issues the views represented here are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Endowment, its staff, or its trustees. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment.Ĭarnegie Endowment for International Peaceġ779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20036 © 2011 Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceĪll rights reserved.